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Attempting to explain the actions of North Korea is a very risky venture. Given the continuing speculation about the failing health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, many will assume that recent provocative and erratic behavior on the part of Pyongyang is tied to the process of succession in North Korea....   >>>

Attempting to explain the actions of North Korea is a very risky venture. Given the continuing speculation about the failing health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, many will assume that recent provocative and erratic behavior on the part of Pyongyang is tied to the process of succession in North Korea.



The notion that such provocations as the artillery attack on Tuesday are part of a strategy to give credibility to Kim Jong-il’s designated successor Kim Jong-un makes for a compelling story line. However, I have seen no evidence to suggest that Kim Jong-il has relinquished any authority, responsibility or decision-making power or that his sonhas assumed any such powers.



From a United States perspective, this most recent action might be explained as an indication of North Korean displeasure with the U.S. policy of strategic patience and ongoing sanctions on North Korea. It might also be seen as a diversionary tactic designed to draw U.S. attention away from responding to recent revelations regarding North Korea’s uranium enrichment facilities at Yongbyon. Both these explanations, however, probably presume too much that North Korea’s decisionmaking is focused on U.S. responses.



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Can this situation be handled diplomatically? The focus of our diplomatic efforts should be on China.



In recent months, China made a clear decision to double down on its bet that it could moderate North Korean behavior through more overt support of the regime in Pyongyang. While this approach appeared to bear fruit since North Korea has not recently tested long-range missiles, and did not disrupt the G-20 meetings in Seoul, the series of actions taken by North Korea over the last week have exposed China’s impotence in influencing North Korean behavior.



[read more from this article, and the rest of the articles from the Room for Debate on NYT]