The US spends about $80 billion a year on intelligence initiatives and yet seem to have been surprised by the revolts that happened in Tunisia, Egypt, and now Bahrain and Libya. Would you consider that a a failure on the part of US intelligence?
Jennifer Sims writes in The New York Times that US intelligence has been good recognizing discontent when they occur. However, where US intelligence has been weak is in predicting the tipping points.
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http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/02/24/why-didnt-the-us-foresee-the-arab-revolts?ref=opinion